Site context changes the answer
Biomass can supply higher-temperature heat and may suit sites with secure local fuel and space. Heat pumps avoid fuel deliveries and combustion but need electricity and a usable low-temperature source.
Look beyond stack carbon
Biomass assessment should include fuel origin, moisture, particulate controls, ash, transport and air-quality requirements. Heat-pump assessment should include grid emissions, refrigerant and peak electricity.
Do not compare nameplates
Compare systems serving the same annual duty with equal backup and availability. Capital, labour, storage and maintenance boundaries must match.
Start with the heat duty and the local fuel chain
Biomass can serve high-temperature water and steam without a low-grade heat source. Its case depends on secure fuel specification, storage space, delivery access, handling labour and ash removal. Moisture and fuel quality affect both useful output and emissions performance.
A heat pump replaces deliveries and combustion with electricity, source capture and refrigeration equipment. It is strongest where the site already rejects usable heat close to a simultaneous demand. A cold source and high sink temperature can remove much of that advantage.
Normalise annual cost and availability
Compare systems serving the same hourly load with equivalent backup. For biomass include fuel price at the required moisture, boiler efficiency, deliveries, operator time, maintenance, ash, emissions controls and parasitic electricity. For the heat pump include seasonal COP, pumps, tariff structure, refrigerant service and retained peak heat.
Nameplate capacity does not establish annual output. Planned cleaning, fuel interruptions, source outages and minimum stable load should appear in the operating model for both options.
Carbon and air quality need separate evidence
Biogenic carbon accounting does not remove particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, transport or the need to evidence sustainable fuel origin. Heat-pump emissions depend on the electricity factor, refrigerant leakage and the displaced baseline. State each boundary instead of labelling either technology carbon-free.
Local air-quality constraints, permitting and neighbours may decide against combustion before the financial comparison is complete. Grid capacity, noise and equipment location can do the same to a heat-pump concept.
Sources
General technical explanation. No specific external source claims are made on this page.